新西兰房价貌似还在涨
在新西兰
看楼下拍卖的帖子。三个月前绝对卖不了这个价。
http://China2au/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=2338873&extra=page%3D1
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请问是什么让之前的你相信房价不在涨了的呢?
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并没有什么让我赶脚不涨了，只是脚的是不是该停停了。
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唉是啊,同感有的区域的确涨得比较快,而且一两年之内还是这趋势.
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auckland has 500,000 houses
40,000 houses are govenment owned state housing
population 1.4 million, people are coming in every week, and more people are returning back from australia ( due to slowing down) and positive net migration in the coming months.
building of new houses will take 2-3 years to pick up. Costs of building is not going to get cheaper if not more expensive ( at leat 3-4% more expensive from now)
There is so much to catch up on the supply side..... and demand will continue to be strong to push up the price further.
"If you think you are already at the mountain top, may be you are just at the mid valley "
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我就喜欢没事上这论坛上看看一些酸贴，预测房市要崩盘的那种，笑点颇多~
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this forum is a good market indicator to listen to market sentiment.
Foreign buyers ( chinese) are not the market mover in auckland, british is still leading , so as aussie. The main mover is still local people ( that include local asian, kiwi, european etc)
This guy from bnz is a respectable economist would give a good insight :-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AjyBZqhgKG0
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It's still good time for traders as surely properties still have sometime to go upward.
But for long-term investors, they need to assess if values are still there.
My opinion is Auckland houses have been overvalued. A very good means to do the assessment is DCF method which is normally used to assess share value. But it works poorly for share valuation as it's hard to predict a Company's maintainable free cash flow.
However, I think it's quite useful for property valuation. Because it's relatively easier to know the amount of free cash flow generated from a property given the fact of its rent, rates, insurance, repairs & maintenance, etc.
By using DCF method, I've figured out Auckland houses are at least overvalued by 20%.
Therefore be cautious for long-term investing.
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overvalue by 20%
现在卖50万的房子 也就值40万， 现在卖100万的房子，也就值80万，也可以说很多政府估价，已经overvalue了
原来房市的最大炒家是city council......
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It's just an opinion. Reference only.
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请教什么是DCF 估价法？
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这话是怎么理解呢？
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这次boom才刚开始不久啊，还会涨的。
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我是按照他的算法还原“合理房价” 很多“合理房价” 应该是低于CV的，可是市场不同意呢，所以这位朋友说现在房市整个都overvalue了
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housing corp is the biggest landlord in auckland..... follow by another trust of 200 houses.
As i said before, John key and bill english are laughing under the blanket as the book value of their houses is showing a big capital gain, they are releasing /selling some of the fullsite houses now and use the cash to built more units/apartments in future.
This social housing will not concentrate in few areas (eg GI, otahuhu)but more spread out in different suburds of auckland as a form of social integration.
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我怎么看不到他说的合理房价是低于政府估价的呢？，现在的房价基本上是在政府cv基础上加至少50%,很多都是翻了一番的，你怎么说？
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DCF貌似未来现金流折现估值法,常常应用于股票投资中.
我也感觉上认为现在买入的一些房子用于长期投资的化不太合适,短线交易还可.
比如买入一个70万的房子,租600块一周,回报率4%,加上其他所有费用,现在买入就是要贴钱的. 如果打算长期持有10年,未来算上利息上涨等每年贴进去算2万块,未来长期持有收益并不高. 而且乐观认为现在70万的房子10年后涨到140万不太现实. 2011年前买的房子2020年翻一翻还是可能的,现在已经暴涨了30-40%.
我周围一个房子,屋主买入时间为2004年49万买的,最近74万卖出,扣掉中介费71万,赚22万,再算上这9年的利息,其中几年高达8-9%,长期持有者并没有什么利润.
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而且2005,2006年买房子的,在2009-2011年中有机会以差不多的价格买到同样的房子,期间还避开了2007左右的高达10%的利息,并没有损失时间成本还少付了很多的利息.所以现在回头看2009-2011年买房的大打赢过2006年买房的.
现在房子大涨,有点象2005年那个时期的状况.
我看现在很多房子SOLD之后不久就 FOR RENT了. 投资客极多.
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....“基本上” “很多” 成交价在CV的150%-200%，你适合去当中介，各种没来由的忽悠
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说点有根据的吧，别整那没用的
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08年我母亲一朋友还真卖了栋低于cv5w的好区能分割，问题啥，人家那是在金融危机市场低谷时候买的，市场低谷也不是年年遇到的～～我也何尝不想能低于cv价格买到喜欢的房子
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隔壁超市杂货阿姨都知道要跌，我看看谁是狗熊
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that is why top 3% are rich.
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这就说明房价还会涨。
等到隔壁超市杂货阿姨都知道要升的时候，那就要跌喽，呵呵。
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有道理！顶！
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精辟。。。。。。
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你这是回头看，当然看得清清楚楚明明白白了，你要是往前看，可能就是雾里看花水中望月了。
2005-2007年的时候，你能判断出几年后的2009-2011年的房价和当初（2005-2007）不会差很多吗？
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yes, indeed.