新西兰新西兰央行行长出来讲话了，纽币走势你怎么看
在新西兰
Wheeler今天出来讲话了:"基本面看纽元明显被高估，希望见到纽元汇率走低，并表示将准备适时对市场进行干预"，之后纽币跌幅100个点左右到现在。不过没有任何行动之前，纽币不会降很多的，有可能会反弹的更高。除非央行无限期量化宽松，才能长期推低汇率，如果只是出来干预一下，短期有效，但有可能适得其反，就像日本地震后一样。
谁还觉得今年有可能升息？除非通货膨胀达到2%以上才有可能。所以不接着降息就不错了。
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不会升息~~~
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短期不會。起碼銀行房貸不會。澳洲那邊昨天能做的新利率。4.9%可以fix3年。歷史低位了吧。
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牛币大跌3个因素:
1:索罗斯做空纽币
2;全球金融危机几年后爆发
3; 美元恢复强势政策
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依你看，有什么因素会导致全球金融危机几年后爆发吗？
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初中学的资本主义经济特征很明确的讲了4个周期.
人类的贪婪与恐惧决定的.
现在全球开闸放水, 一波泡沫呼之欲出.
泡泡总会破的.
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新西兰央行干预市场，没有那个资金吧？
唯一的手段就是降息，但现在喊房价高的人这么多了，也不容易啊
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我并不知道什么4个周期, 但我知道资本主义社会是有周期性的经济危机. 但这周期需要好好去理解. 从08年到现在刚刚经历过一场经济危机, 接下来应该经历一场经济繁荣周期, 然后, 再如你所说的, 全球再经历一次金融(经济) 危机.
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必须要降啊！好像刚刚破0.83了
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对,以史为鉴,下一次危机大概在2017年左右爆发,那个时候要全部持币.
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持什么币？纽币？美金？
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纽币的走势并不仅仅取决于NZ这个微型经济体。看看以下这个.
Fed Signals Possible Slowing of QE Amid Debate Over Risks
Bloomberg 21/02/2013
The Federal Reserve signaled it mayconsider slowing the pace of asset purchases as officialsextended a debate over whether record monetary easing risksunleashing inflation or fueling asset-price bubbles.
Several participants at the Federal Open Market Committee’sJan. 29-30 meeting “emphasized that the committee should beprepared to vary the pace of asset purchases, either in responseto changes in the economic outlook or as its evaluation of theefficacy and costs of such purchases evolved,” according to theminutes of the gathering released yesterday.
Stocks fell, along with oil and gold, on bets the centralbank will curb stimulus earlier than expected, even as severalFed officials warned against a premature end to $85 billion inmonthly bond buying. A gradual reduction in purchases may winthe FOMC’s support because it gives policy makers flexibility,said Michael Hanson, senior U.S. economist at Bank of AmericaCorp. in New York.
The minutes show “tapering is a likely outcome at somepoint in the future,” said Hanson, a former Fed economist. “Ifyou taper the purchases, it allows you to calibrate how themarket reacts to your actions without having to go coldturkey.”
Policy makers in December started debating when to haltbond buying that has pushed the Fed’s assets to more than $3trillion, prompting warnings by some officials that the programwill complicate an eventual withdrawal of stimulus.
‘Evenly Divided’
At the December meeting, Fed officials were “approximatelyevenly divided” between those favoring a mid-2013 end topurchases and those advocating a later date, according tominutes from the gathering. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has pledgedto buy bonds until there’s a “substantial” improvement in alabor market burdened by 7.9 percent unemployment.
The minutes released yesterday didn’t indicate a discussionabout when to end quantitative easing.
“They’re changing the debate toward when to scale it downrather than debating the point where it suddenly ends,” saidJim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economicsin Valhalla, New York. “With the economy looking more solidthan they feared a few months ago, financial-sector risks takeon more importance.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fell more yesterday than inany trading session since November, declining 1.2 percent to1,511.95. The index is up 6 percent this year. The yield on the10-year Treasury note fell to 2.01 percent from 2.03 percent onFeb. 19.
Total Size
The FOMC at its January meeting decided to continue buying$45 billion a month of Treasuries and $40 billion in mortgagedebt without setting a limit on the duration or total size ofthe purchases. Policy makers also affirmed their pledge to keepthe target interest rate near zero “at least as long” asunemployment remains above 6.5 percent and inflation isprojected to be no more than 2.5 percent.
A number of officials said that their evaluation of costsand benefits of the policy “might well lead the Committee totaper or end its purchases before it judged that a substantialimprovement in the outlook for the labor market had occurred,”according to the minutes.
“Several others argued that the potential costs ofreducing or ending asset purchases too soon were alsosignificant, or that asset purchases should continue until asubstantial improvement in the labor-market outlook hadoccurred,” the minutes showed. The minutes don’t give the namesof officials or specify the precise number holding a given view.
New Ways
The minutes said that the committee would conduct a reviewof quantitative easing at the March 19-20 meeting. Fed officialsare also considering new ways to present economic projections intheir public communications. Many participants expressedinterest in using their quarterly projections to conveyinformation about future asset purchases and the Fed’s balancesheet.
With inflation below their long-term goal of 2 percent,policy makers are forging ahead with record accommodation tostoke an economy that shrank 0.1 percent last quarter. The Fedhas pushed the benchmark interest rate close to zero andexpanded its balance sheet to more than $3 trillion.
The minutes said “many participants” expressed concernabout “potential costs and risks arising from further assetpurchases.” Several discussed “possible complications” thatadditional purchases could have as the Fed begins to exit thepolicy, a few mentioned inflation risks, and some mentionedrisks to financial stability.
Capital Losses
“Several participants noted that a very large portfolio oflong-duration assets would, under certain circumstances, exposethe Federal Reserve to significant capital losses when theseholdings were unwound,” the minutes said. “Others pointed tooffsetting factors, and one noted that losses would not impedethe effective operation of monetary policy.”
Bernanke is waiting to see improvement in employment and isnot yet too concerned with the costs, former Minneapolis FedPresident Gary Stern said yesterday in a Bloomberg Radiointerview on “The Hays Advantage” with Kathleen Hays.
The Fed chairman and his “principal allies” remain“concerned about the economic outlook,” Stern said.
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美国都无限量的印钞了，还指望美元走强吗？
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美国并没有实际印钞，只是加快了货币流动速度。
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如果美元没有实际大量印钞的消息被众人知道，那么全球就会抢美元。这是目前美国所不想看到的，但是未来他一定乐于看见。
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"但是未来他一定乐于看见".
How can you know? How long will it be?
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现在各国都在指责对方自贬汇率，提高出口机会，给别国制造带来麻烦。货币大战就此展开。可这一切的因素，都有一个共同的指向——美元。只要他一收手，其他国家的汇率自贬就会反噬，自受其害。美元就在等待这个好机会。他坐享其成。
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具体的谈论可见本人的最近的发帖。
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嘿嘿，这点东西，但凡留意财经消息的人都知道，属于public information, 没什么价值。
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你是学金融的吗？好像很在乎体系性评价吗？
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我不是学金融的。不必误会，只是说说我想表达的opinion.
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“各国都在谴责对方”我有点不信呀，美国和欧洲诸国联手搞得这一套，即使有谴责，估计也是做戏。
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继续降吧 什么时候能回到4.5的年代的啊 现在都不求4.3了
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08年的时候出现过3.8，几年一个轮回，估计明后年快到了。
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貌似是09年
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讨论货币和房子我感觉关系不大, 房子是一种缘分,你什么时候能够换钱,什么时候能够看到你喜欢的房子,都是阴错阳差的事,如果你够幸运,那么就可以在换钱的时候找到合眼的房子,或者在找到合眼的房子的时候汇率刚好和你意..... 但是不免太完美了吧.
我个人觉得牛鼻4年一周期,怎么变,变多少就不知道了,只知道大趋势是这样,祝愿大家都能在牛鼻大跌的时候看见自己喜欢的房,:)