我现在还想买个小生意做,要这样的话那还敢买啊。
Retailing to get even tougher in 2009
15/12/2008 12:00:03 PM
The tough times suffered by retailers this year will only get worse in 2009.
Having endured a horror 2008 because of high interest rates and record petrol prices, retailers now face a nation of shoppers worried about their jobs.
Put simply, "shoppers are on strike," Access Economics director David Rumbens says in the independent forecaster's latest retail report.
Cafes and restaurants have been doing it particularly tough but the household goods sector, long the star performer of the retail sector, is seeing its sharpest slowdown in a decade.
Mr Rumbens says consumers are taking stock of considerable falls in their wealth, the risk of ongoing capital losses from both shares and housing, and the increasing chance of unemployment.
"The risk for Australian retailers is that a return to higher savings now occurs chaotically and rapidly across the next year or two, rather than more steadily across a number of years," he says.
Mr Rumbens says the great consumer boom of the past decade occurred as the economy grew rapidly, and wealth grew more rapidly still, to the extent that people stopped saving "the money coming through the door".
By early 2004 the average family spent four per cent more than it earned, in sharp contrast to the eight per cent saving rates averaged across the 1980s and 1990s.
Access is forecasting retail sales to fall 0.1 per cent in 2008-09 compared with 4.5 per cent growth in 2007-08.
In 2009-10 it expects anaemic growth of 0.9 per cent.
"The disaster scenario would be if Australian housing prices were infected by the big falls in sharemarket values and the wider losses of confidence among consumers," Mr Rumbens says.
However, the more likely scenario is that consumers stay in their "foxholes" through to mid-2009 before beginning a cautious recovery.
He expects the next year will bring more interest rate cuts and tax cuts, but jobs growth will slow, as will wage gains.
Debt laden NSW and the ACT are where the trading conditions of 2008 have been the most dire.
"Conditions remain sufficiently atrocious in NSW that it and the other debt-heavy states might not see a particularly rapid recovery," he says.
Victoria trails along in little better condition, but states where consumers have smaller debts - South Australia and Tasmania - are seeing solid retail gains.
While Western Australia, Northern Territory and Queensland have benefited from a long-running commodities boom, Mr Rumbens expects they will lose much of that support they've enjoyed in recent years.
[ 本帖最后由 北雁南飞 于 2008-12-15 20:06 编辑 ]
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这个时候有可能买到好生意啊。
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是啊,这时买,有可能抄底买到好生意,但就怕是冲上去,当了填坑的
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现在是买生意的好时候呀,等到明年7月,光明就来到了,顶过半年就是曙光....
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主要看什么生意?有些影响不会太大
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饭总要吃,烟总要抽得吧
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买生意是一件综合的事情,大的经济环境只是需要考虑到条件之一。
毕竟现在大部分人都是做小生意,更看你对自己生意的掌控程度,投入程度,资金的储备。
生意是一个平台,多好的经济或者是地理位置如果缺乏核心竞争力都做不好。
比如Fish & Chips,中餐重点就是体力和口味,如果自己身体不强壮,或者对客户的口味不了解,
就很难做好生意。而做批发货源和资金量就是核心问题。看好生意需要什么样的投入,再看看自己的强项和资源有多少才是买生意的根本。
经济不好时大部分生意是损失利润,就是少挣一点,但这几天好几个朋友都说他们公司在裁人,也就是说打工可能损失工作,那就是全部收入。
经济是有波段性的,而懂得做的人是靠波段性来挣更多的钱。
就像巴菲特说的,要在别人恐慌的时候贪婪,在别人贪婪的时候及时撤出。
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但是我觉得现阶段真正的好生意别人不会拿出来卖的,实在撑不住了才考虑卖掉吧,真需要火眼金睛才行。
等明年7月光明就来了吗?希望借你吉言吧,危机快点过去。
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如果有眼光现在可能是捡便宜的好时机。但是捡到垃圾的机会也很大。
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现在市场上好生意不多,比如Milkbar,taking一般都在6000上下,这样的店很难挣钱。 好的店一般都不卖,原因很简单,现在的taking都很难看,卖不出好价钱。乡下人在卖猪前几天,都使劲地为细粮,就是让猪好看些,买个好价钱。
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形容的很到位
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谢谢群主的热情指点
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好的MIlk bar,(taking 在10000/周上下的) 现在这个阶段是没有人卖的,owner 宁可再挺挺,也不愿意赔本儿卖。现在出来的很多店都是凑热闹,想趁机出来,骗骗163那些人的。哎,有时想想,163也挺惨的。。墨尔本的赌场旁边的 “皇城老妈”那叫一个烂,居然听说最近也转了手,价格还不错,好像买家也是163。
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主要还是看看原业主为什么要卖这个生意,多考察总是必要的
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也不排除有的业主不满足现状,要有更大发展
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想做生意就下决心不要离city太近,最好也别进shopping centre。
鱼和熊掌不可二得,既然要挣钱,就做好几年内个人生活略有下降的准备。
准乡下还是有好生意的,即便大形势不好,流水也很稳定。
人是必须要照顾“嘴”的,跟吃喝有关系的生意应该是保险系数比较高的。但竞争高的地段压力会大一些。
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如果价钱划算和条件适合, 没有不能买的生意。
[ 本帖最后由 Devil_Star 于 2008-12-22 13:18 编辑 ]
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什么时候应该都有被黑的吧
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主要还是多看看,多听听有经验人的意见。
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说得不错, 俺最近在西边的乡下买了milkbar, 过完节就settle了, 也准备过乡下人生活啦, 离你们就越来越远了。 以后没事来乡下慰问俺们吧, 那个milkbar的住房倒是够多的。
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我3个月前来布里斯班投考同学, 准备卖个生意, 开始是newsagency, 收入稳定, 就是gp好低. 10-15%只有. city的几乎都看过了, 就是觉得, 租金太高了. 10万一年的租金, 剩下来的前就算不请人 还不如出去打工.
gp高的吧, cafe吧. 看了好几个, 最后一个连锁电蛮喜欢的, 要25万, 说是一个星期taking 9000,10000. 但是酸酸银行待的15万, 自己一位要拿10万, ok. 结果杂七杂八的钱一算又要3.4万. 算了, 没买.
有一个再city, 地理位置超级方便, 租金相对也比较合理, 老人作不动了, 开始以为broker骗人. 后来看年表, 前面2年都是一个星期工作45小时的, 09年开始就工作了30小时. 赚钱还不错的提升了10%左右. 15万, 买吧. 但是, 银行贷款没批准.
后来还是先买房子吧, 这个不说, 最近看看新闻, 知道经济不景气了, 零售业也受到巨大打击, 比如, 一个人一个星期本来10刀用来喝咖啡, 现在, 8刀, 7刀, 甚至更少. 庆幸啊, 还好没有买生意拿时候.
其实吧, 09年, owner觉得taking减少, 房租在涨, 利索应当把生意拿出来卖. 有危才有机会嘛, 到是有超底一说法. 这个取决个人眼光吧. 30万的生意, 如果真赶着卖, 可能20万, 甚至更少就能卖下了. 但是, 即便买了, 就自己承担taking减少, 租约减少乃至贬值这个风险.看造化了.
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关注。。
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学习~
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小生意要小心,因为抗不起风险,大的好些.
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学习中
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多谢前辈们讨论和启示
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